Daily coverage · David Morales
Gold, silver, oil, copper and agriculture: supply, demand and price levels.
Brent slips to the high $90s as Gulf exports double, but diesel holds a 4.5% bid on Russia's October export ban. The range and the skew, unpacked.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
The strike-by-strike tracker now counts 19 confirmed hits on Russian refining infrastructure. The transmission runs through products, not crude: ULSD's crack sits near $92 a barrel against roughly $30 a year ago, and Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil loadings have collapsed to about 150 kb/d, down 81% from the five-year average. Here is the market thread, strike by strike.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold consolidates under $4,200 into today's core PCE print; oil eases on US-Iran truce hopes even as Axios reports little progress. Silver and copper firm.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Three amended U.S. licenses cover Venezuelan oil sales, sector supplies and contingent investment talks. Blocked-person payments are directed to Treasury-designated funds, while new contracts under GL 49B cannot be performed without separate authorization.
Alex Navarrosmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold slid to ~$4,158 on a firmer dollar and Fed-hike repricing, but the COT shows long liquidation, not fresh shorts. Central banks' record +289t Q2 purchase anchors the structural bid.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Middle East crude exports top 12.8 mb/d in September even as Strait of Hormuz shipping stays below normal. Here is how the barrels are still getting out.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Crude rebounds past $94 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz reopening, while Ukraine's Sept 26 strike halts the Ilsky refinery and adds to the confirmed offline tally.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Spot gold slid to near $4,236, its lowest in seven weeks, as a firmer dollar, 10-year yields near 5.2%, and 65-70% October-hike odds outmuscled the Middle East safe-haven bid.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
One Hormuz transit versus an 85/day baseline, Trump's rejection of Iran's reopening offer, a Russian diesel ban expiring Wednesday, and a Ukraine payment cliff line up before Monday's open.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Russia's drone campaign has shut Odesa's ports into January. Ukraine's grain exports fell 48.6% in August. Here is the export drop, the freight cost and the mirror image.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold sits at $4,303, down 2.75%, as the conflict bid faded. Learn the support lines that matter and what the pullback signals for silver and copper.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
WTI fell 7.9% and Brent gave back less as crude's war premium unwound this week, but the distillate crack held near $90. Russia has over 45% of refining offline; products, not crude, carry the tightness.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst