Gold Holds $4,110 as the 29K Payrolls Miss Cuts October Odds

September's payrolls print did the work that a month of positioning data could not. Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 consensus, August was revised down to 133,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Futures markets collapsed the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 18-22%, down from about 70% a week earlier, and gold answered by holding its $4,110-4,150 support through Monday morning, trading near $4,131-4,160 spot with December futures around $4,164. December hike chances still sit near 87%, so this is a repricing of pace, not direction, and that distinction matters for every level in this piece.

Key Takeaways September nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 v…