Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Line chart of 10-year Treasury yield over 90 days

Macro

The Weekend Brief: Term Premium Returns - How the 4.8% Treasury Repriced Risk Assets

The 10-year Treasury threw off its flat mid-week calm and repriced every risk asset this week. Here is how the term premium came back, what the 4.8 to 4.95 percent move means for the Fed path, and where the rotation lands next.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 13, 20265 MIN READ

Abstract world map with interrupted glowing pathways representing sanctions

Macro

Treasury Flips the Default Setting on Iran Sanctions Exceptions

OFAC's September 10 notice pairs a shift to presumption of denial for Iran specific licenses with new terrorism-financing designations and a $1.43 million enforcement settlement. Together the three actions mark a policy-lever change in how the sanctions machinery processes exceptions, not just another name on the SDN list.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 12, 20265 MIN READ

Line chart showing 10-year Treasury yield over 90 days

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

CPI Reaction: August Inflation Print Surprises Markets

# CPI Reaction: August Inflation Print Surprises Markets The August CPI print arrived hotter than expected on the headline, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward as it approaches next week's...

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20263 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (percent) on a dark background

Macro

Yields Spike 11 Basis Points as Markets Await CPI Print

The 10-year Treasury yield surged 11 basis points to 4.94% on Thursday, its highest level in two weeks, as traders brace for tomorrow's August CPI print. The move pressured risk assets across the

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days on a dark background

Macro

Daily Macro Snapshot: Key Indicators for September 11

The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.94%, pushing equities lower as the VIX fell. With CPI data due tomorrow, markets are bracing for what the print means for Fed policy.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20263 MIN READ

Macro

Market Positioning Ahead of Fed Meetings

With the September FOMC decision days away and CPI data pending, positioning data reveals how traders are positioned across assets. Here is what the numbers tell us.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20264 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield on a dark background

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

August Producer Price Index: What It Means

The August Producer Price Index landed at +0.9% month-over-month, far above the -0.5% consensus and a sharp reversal from July's -0.8% decline. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices rose +6.4%, a...

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 10, 20264 MIN READ

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

August PPI Jumps 0.9% vs Consensus for Decline, Inflation Pressure Rebounds

August PPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, crushing expectations for a 0.5% decline and sending stocks and bonds lower. Here's what it means for Fed policy.