Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
The October jobs report lands Friday with consensus at +65,000 nonfarm payrolls, and Apple, Palantir and AMD report in the first two nights. Here is the calendar, the consensus and the levels that matter.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Alphabet fell a record 12% and Amazon fell on free cash flow as the market repriced AI capex. Inside the week that changed the AI trade.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
A week in review: an oil supply shock pushed Brent to $117.64 and kept the 10-year at 5%, while a Fed hold left a December hike alive and an AI capex reset hit Nasdaq.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Consumer confidence climbed 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, back to June levels. The catch is where the strength sits: the expectations sub-index trails the present situation by 47.8 points, the split that has historically flagged a slowdown. Here is what it means for retailers, rate-sensitive sectors, and the December Fed decision.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
September PCE came in at 0.5% month over month and 3.6% year over year, one tenth cooler than consensus, while core matched at 0.3% (0.32% unrounded), right at the threshold tied to a possible December Fed hike. Here is the first market read and what to watch into the December FOMC.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
US real GDP grew 3.4% SAAR in Q3 2026, beating the 3.2% consensus as PCE inflation cooled to 2.1%. Our analysis covers the components, market reaction and what to watch.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The first Q3 GDP number arrives October 29. Q2 was revised from 1.5% to 2.2% annualized; the demand measure changed too, which is why the headline needs context.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The Fed held the target range at 3.75%-4.00% on a 10-2 vote, with two officials dissenting for a hike. Longer-dated Treasuries rallied while equities were flat and gold slipped; here is what the split tells us about a December move, and what to watch next.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
September PCE consensus looks for headline +0.5% m/m and +3.7% y/y, core +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y. A core read above +0.30% m/m reopens the December FOMC question; here is what transmits.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The Q3 GDP advance estimate lands Thursday with consensus near 3.2%. Here's what a surprise in either direction would mean for the Fed's December path, paired with September PCE.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
September left the funds target at 3.75% to 4.00%. The October result is still pending; here is the difference between a rate vote and a shift in outlook.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Producer inflation at 6.3% is running nearly three points ahead of consumer inflation at 3.7%. Historically that gap resolves toward higher consumer prices, not lower.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst