Daily coverage · Weekly briefing Mondays · Ethan Caldwell

Prediction Markets

Kalshi, Polymarket and event contracts. What the odds say about the Fed, CPI, elections and market structure, and how they resolved.

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Prediction Markets

September CPI ladder resolves: Kalshi 0.6% threshold settles NO as BLS prints 0.59%

Kalshi's September CPI ladder settled YES on the 0.4% and 0.5% monthly thresholds but NO on 0.6% after BLS printed a 0.59% rise, bracketing the report between the settled contracts.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 15, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

September CPI market: Kalshi 0.5% contract settles YES, October Fed hike odds jump to 36.5%

Kalshi's September CPI ladder settled YES on the 0.5% threshold after BLS reported a 0.6% monthly rise, and Polymarket's October Fed hold pricing fell to 62.5%.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 14, 20267 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Buffalo Bills Kalshi Market: 39% Pregame Price Settles YES

Kalshi priced Buffalo at 39% before its October 12, 2026 game against Los Angeles; a 37-34 overtime finish shows why one result cannot grade market calibration.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 13, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi CPI Ladder: The 0.5% Threshold Slips to 58.5% as Neighboring Brackets Narrow

Kalshi’s lead September CPI threshold contract fell to 58.5%, while neighboring odds bracket a narrow range before the BLS release on October 14.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20266 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

CPI Market Prices a 58.5% Chance of a 0.5% Rise

Kalshi puts the September CPI threshold at 58.5%, while the last published BLS report recorded a 0.4% monthly rise in August. The contract settles on the next print, not the annual inflation rate.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Odds Stay Below 1% as CFTC Opens Rule Debate

Polymarket's October Fed-cut contract rose from 0.35% to 0.55% across the week, while the CFTC's October 9 proposal put event-contract definitions back in focus. The odds remain low beside a 4.00% fed-funds upper bound and September payroll growth of 29,000.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

CFTC prediction markets rule: event contracts would count as swaps, casino wagers excluded from definition

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced two actions on October 9, 2026 that pull event contracts toward the swap definition while explicitly carving out casino-style wagers, redrawing the regulatory line for Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction-market venues.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 10, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

NFL’s Supreme Court Filing Tests Prediction Market Rules

Polymarket priced a 29% chance of Supreme Court review by year-end on October 9, as the NFL and other groups filed briefs in a case over sports event contracts.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 9, 20266 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed Rate Markets Price 84.5% October Hold

Polymarket priced an October Fed hold at 84.5% on October 9, while the October 8 minutes said most officials expected another increase by year end.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 9, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed Minutes Lift December Hike Odds to 82% on Inflation Risks

Kalshi's December rate market moved higher after the Fed minutes detailed persistent inflation risks and a policy debate still open to incoming data.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 8, 20267 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Iran Ceasefire Odds Hold High as Hormuz Claims Diverge

Polymarket’s October 15 ceasefire market fell from 90.5% to 86.5% by 07:44 UTC on October 8, while US and Iranian claims about Hormuz remained sharply different.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 8, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi AI Market Odds Reach 85%, but Filing and Live Rules Differ

Kalshi’s OpenAI and Google contracts show 85% and 78% midpoints with no reported trading, while the venue API describes a settlement test that differs from its CFTC filing.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 7, 20266 MIN READ

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