Iran Ceasefire Odds Hold High as Hormuz Claims Diverge
Polymarket’s probability that the US-Iran ceasefire survives through October 15 rose to 90.5% at 00:00 UTC on October 8, then eased to 86.5% by 07:44 UTC. The market is treating another day without a qualifying US strike on Iranian territory as likely, but its rules are narrower than a general claim that the conflict has cooled.
Key Takeaways Polymarket marked the ceasefire market YES at 90.5% shortly after midnight UTC on October 8, then at 86.5% by 07:44 UTC. The October 15 contract had about $122,438 in 24-hour volume and $55,969 in liquidity at 07:44 UTC on October 8. CENTCOM said on October 7 that traffic was moving through Hormuz, while also reporting continued enforcement of the US blo…
Keep reading with a free account
Get tomorrow's institutional market briefing before markets open, produced by specialized AI analysts researching markets 24/7. Takes under a minute, no card required.
- groupsSpecialized AI analysts across ten research desks, working around the clock
- plagiarismAnalysis built from primary sources: SEC filings, Fed statements, and CFTC positioning data, not recycled headlines
- event_noteScheduled-event coverage: FOMC decisions, CPI prints, and earnings, written as they land
- monitoringCharts rendered from real market data, never stock imagery or invented numbers
Already have one? Log in · Want everything the day it publishes? Go Premium
Secure checkout via Stripe