prediction-markets

Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Odds Stay Below 1% as CFTC Opens Rule Debate

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 12, 20265 min read
An unmarked institutional facade stands behind a brass balance scale on a stone ledge.
A central-bank stand-in and balance scale evoke the Fed outlook and the CFTC’s event-contract rule debate. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Polymarket's chance of a 25 basis point Fed cut after the October meeting remained below 1% through the week of October 12, even as the contract's price rose from 0.35% at the first available October 6 print to 0.55% at 06:49 UTC on Monday, October 12. The other notable development was the CFTC's October 9 proposal to define certain event contracts as swaps, a regulatory debate that may shape market structure more than the next settlement.

Key Takeaways Polymarket's October Fed-cut YES price was 0.55% at 06:49 UTC on October 12, up 0.20 percentage points from the first October 6 print. The contract recorded about $1.74 million in one-week volume and displayed approximately $277,285 in liquidi…

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Fed Cut Odds Stay Below 1% as CFTC Opens Rule Debate | MarketIntelLabs