October PPI Inflation: Kalshi Prices a December Hike at 87%

October PPI is today's test, and the test has stopped being a CPI story. The inflation shock has moved out of the headline index and into the term premium, where a tailing 30-year auction cleared 5.441% on Thursday and a broad dollar near 121.9 are doing the work the CPI report started. Consensus puts October producer prices at 6.6% year over year, up from September's 6.3% and the largest annual increase since December 2022, and that single print now carries the December conversation.

Key Takeaways October PPI is expected at 6.6% year over year, up from September's 6.3%, the fastest producer-price inflation since December 2022. The 30-year Treasury auction tailed Thursday, clearing 5.441% wit…