Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Louisiana blocks Kalshi event contracts; US sues Arkansas

A Louisiana judge ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood to stop facilitating event contracts for state residents on Nov 12. The same day the DOJ and CFTC sued Arkansas to block state gambling enforcement against CFTC-regulated exchanges. Here is who is affected and what is dated next.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 13, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr advisory role over $300M Polymarket conflict

Kalshi ended Donald Trump Jr's paid advisory role on November 12, tied to an around $300 million Polymarket investment his firm 1789 Capital led within a $1 billion round at a near $21 billion valuation.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 13, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Prediction markets on clinical trials and drug approvals draw a Senate letter to HHS

Sens. Alsobrooks and Wyden asked HHS what it has done about prediction markets on clinical trials and FDA approvals, and Kalshi's approval contracts are pricing the risk as unchanged.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 12, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Novig sports contracts ruled not swaps by SDNY judge

A Nov. 10 SDNY ruling found Novig's sports event contracts are not swaps, letting New York demand a state gambling license or a listing halt and narrowing the CEA-preemption argument shared by Kalshi and Polymarket.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 11, 20263 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Polymarket October inflation contract expired unpriced after 2025 lapse erased the annual CPI yardstick

Three Polymarket annual-inflation contracts for October CPI expired without a number because a 2025 lapse erased the year-over-year base; here is what a void settlement means for reading betting odds.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 11, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Iran invasion odds fall to 9.5% as oil peace hopes reset the conflict curve

Polymarket's Iran invasion contract drifted to 9.5% from 12% after Friday's oil crash on peace hopes, and the mismatch between a near-certain ceasefire and deep deal skepticism is the real tell.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 10, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed December decision odds: prediction markets price a 77.5% move on Dec 8-9

Polymarket's December Fed contract prices a 22.5% hold and a 77.5% move at the December 8-9 FOMC, while Kalshi lists the same meeting with no traded volume in the open book. What that split says about where event-contract money is sitting this quarter.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 9, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Will the US invade Iran before 2027: Polymarket odds ease to 12%

Polymarket's US-invade-Iran contract eased to about 12% by Monday even as CENTCOM's blockade extension and fresh strikes hardened the underlying escalation, a divergence worth reading off the resolution language.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 9, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Kalshi sports contracts stop on two California tribal lands

Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley's preliminary injunction puts court-ordered deadlines on where Kalshi can list sports contracts: boundary maps by Nov 13, compliance steps by Nov 25.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 6, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

CFTC orders prediction markets to end state geofencing in 30 days

State courts ordered Kalshi to block sports contracts in Michigan, Nevada and Washington. The CFTC now tells the exchanges they have 30 days to end that geofencing under impartial access rules, testing whether federal access requirements or state court orders prevail.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 6, 20263 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

2028 presidential election odds: Ossoff 21.2% vs Vance 20.5%

Within 48 hours of the 2026 sweep settling, Polymarket's 2028 books became its busiest political action: Jon Ossoff leads the general-election market at 21.2% and the Democratic nomination at 27.2%, while JD Vance tops the GOP nomination at 38.9%. The rotation off the just-settled midterms is the fresh story.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 6, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Alaska Senate race 2026: Peltola priced at 94.75% as the sweep's last seat stays open

A day after the broad Democratic sweep call settled, Polymarket's Alaska Senate event is the last high-volume contested political market still trading, pricing Mary Peltola at 94.75% because its resolution source, AP, Fox and NBC, has not yet all called the same winner.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 5, 20264 MIN READ