Alaska Senate race 2026: Peltola priced at 94.75% as the sweep's last seat stays open

Most of the 2026 election book settled in a rush on Tuesday night, but one high-volume Senate market is still open. Polymarket prices Democrat Mary Peltola at 94.75% in the Alaska Senate race, the last contested seat the venue is still trading days after its end date passed, with roughly $1.00 million of volume on that leg in the last 24 hours alone. The reason it has not closed is a resolution rule, not an unresolved count: the market only settles once all three named sources, the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, call the same winner, otherwise it falls to official certification.

Alaska is a live example of the resolution mechanics this desk reads across the venue; for the framework we use, see our prediction markets coverage.

Related reading: 2026 midterm prediction markets: the 76.5% Democratic sweep call settled yes.

Alaska is the tail of a sweep the venues have already priced across the rest of the map. The 76.5% Democratic sweep contract settled yes on November 4, and Senate control odds had firmed to 77.5% as Election Day opened. What the aggregate book printed as a general sweep, the Alaska seat holds open as a specific question, and that is where the day's volume is concentrated. The Alaska Senate Election Winner event, built from 29 separate candidate contracts, shows $5.98 million in cumulative volume and $1.69 million traded in the last 24 hours, with $1.02 million of resting liquidity.

The interesting mechanical detail is why a market with a passed end date is still live. Polymarket's event description states the market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Because Alaska counts slowly and its result can trail the rest of the country, the venue does not auto-settle at the early end date.

Related reading: Midterm markets narrow to a Senate call as the House is near the board.

Instead it waits for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to all call the race for the same candidate; if all three have not called it, the market resolves based on official certification. There is also a hard fallback: if the results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to Other.

That is why the single Peltola contract, which shows $3.62 million in total volume on its own, is still printing near three-dollar-credit territory rather than glued at effectively certain. The market has not been handed a clean resolution trigger yet, so it prices both the underlying probability and the small chance the certification path produces a different outcome. The 5.25% sitting on the No leg is not a serious Sullivan win view on the merits; it is the residual tail that resolution mechanics attach to a seat whose outcome has not been formally called by all three sources.

Related reading: 2026 midterm odds: split Congress now 26.5 percent on Polymarket.

The wider Senate book is mostly closed, which makes Alaska's volume stand out. Mississippi, the other state many desks tracked into Tuesday, trades its Democrats contract near 96.5% and is effectively finished as a live question. Republican Dan Sullivan, the incumbent against Peltola, holds just 5.55% in his own winner market. Every other Senate seat that mattered on the landscape has resolved; the Alaska event is the one place where six-figure daily volume is still chasing an uncalled result.

For context, the 2028 Republican nomination contracts show how thin a market looks when it has genuinely nothing recent to price. Matt Gaetz trades around 0.15%, Candace Owens around 0.25% and Tom Cotton around 0.5%, each pulling only modest daily volume.

Related reading: 2026 balance of power: Polymarket prices a full Democratic sweep at 76.5%.

Alaska is the opposite case. Here the market has a real, imminent, unresolved event underneath it. The volume proves that traders are treating the uncalled call as the live question, rather than treating the seat as already part of the settled sweep.

What settles it next is a matter of days, not the July fallback. Alaska's counting process follows a known schedule, and once AP, Fox and NBC converge on the same name, or the state certifies, the market will close on that signal. Until then the contract trades as a live derivative of a state's slow count, and the 24-hour volume keeps the number honest.

The pattern is worth remembering for the next big uncalled race. A venue keeps a market open past its nominal end date whenever its resolution source has not converged, and any trader reading the price as pure likelihood misses that the residual is partly a mechanics premium. That split, between an outcome and the market's own rule for calling it, is exactly the gap this beat watches. The sweep is priced; the last seat is not yet a settled print.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.