Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Macro

The 10-Year at 5.25%, Highest Since 2007: What the Pivotal PCE Week Means for Higher-for-Longer

The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.25%, highest since 2007. August PCE lands today as Kalshi prices a 70% chance of an October Fed hike. Here's what to watch.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20264 MIN READ

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Equities

Utilities lead rotation as the S&P caps at 7,670 into quarter-end

The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,670 with a defensive rotation: utilities led 1.17% while energy fell 0.90% into quarter-end. PCE and payrolls loom.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20262 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed Hold Odds Snap Back to 57 Percent: Williams Resets the October Ladder

One speech from the New York Fed president wiped two thirds off the October hike odds overnight, and the December ladder moved with it.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ

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Jobs & Labor

Private Hiring Nearly Doubled From the July Trough. ADP's September Report Tests Whether It Holds.

ADP's weekly hiring tracker has recovered from 8,250 jobs a week in late July to 20,000 by early September, and the September ADP report plus Friday payrolls decide whether the thaw is real.

Marcus Bell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ

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Supply Chain

Canadian Imports Hit a Wall, Not a Price, on September 29

US import bans on Canadian alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on September 29, 2026, as on-highway diesel eased to $6.382 per gallon and the Drewry composite held at $4,468 per 40ft container.

Sofia Almeida smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20267 MIN READ

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AI Markets

An $8 Billion Loss and a $2 Trillion Ask, as the Federal Door on Anthropic Faces Its September 30 Deadline

Reuters published Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus on September 28, 2026 showing an $8.06 billion operating loss on nearly $4.6 billion of 2025 revenue, days after the D.C. Circuit upheld the Pentagon's supply chain risk designation with a termination deadline of September 30, 2026.

Lena Fischer smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20265 MIN READ

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Housing

Home Prices Are Outpacing a 7% Mortgage Rate, and That Math Cannot Hold

Case-Shiller put the national index up 1.9% for the year through July, up from 1.6% in June, but home values fell in real terms for a 14th straight month and the 7.03% mortgage rate from September 24 has not touched this data yet.

Daniel Okafor smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20264 MIN READ

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Cost of Living

Inflation Expectations Hit 6.1% as Confidence Sinks to a 2014 Low

Consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest since April 2014, and the Conference Board's own write-ins say pump prices drove it: AAA has regular at $4.45, up 37 cents in a month, with 6.1% expected inflation now steering household math.

Maya Reyes smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20264 MIN READ

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AI MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

A 60-Day Clock on the Federal Definition of 'Super Intelligence' Starts Today. Nvidia, Meta and the Labs Are Watching

The September 29 executive order renames AI in government, the six-CEO accord keeps safety voluntary, and a federal definition proposal is due around November 28, 2026.

Lena Fischer smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ

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AI MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Five AI Deals in One Day, and Not One Was About GPUs

On September 29, 2026, Samsung's $1 billion into KKR's Helix and Meta's lease lifting Firmus above 900 MW showed the AI capex bottleneck has moved from GPUs to power and integrated infrastructure.

Lena Fischer smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ

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Commodities

OFAC's September 28 Venezuela oil licenses open trade, not a free payment route

Three amended U.S. licenses cover Venezuelan oil sales, sector supplies and contingent investment talks. Blocked-person payments are directed to Treasury-designated funds, while new contracts under GL 49B cannot be performed without separate authorization.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20269 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

Barr's Detroit Outlook: The Fed Isn't Done Raising Rates

Barr's Detroit Economic Outlook speech keeps the Fed hawkish, signaling more rate hikes as core PCE inflation runs above target.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20263 MIN READ