The 10-Year at 5.25%, Highest Since 2007: What the Pivotal PCE Week Means for Higher-for-Longer
The 10-year Treasury opened near 5.25%, its highest level since 2007, and most of today's cross-asset tape traces back to that single number. The August PCE report , the last inflation print before the Oct 27-28 FOMC, lands at 12:30 UTC alongside the Q2 GDP third estimate and a BEA annual revision that rewrites the inflation series back to 2021. The market has already priced the outcome it fears: Kalshi puts a 70% chance on another 25 basis point hike at the October meeting , up from 66% late last week.
Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.24-5.25%, its highest since 2007, with the 30-year at 5.56-5.59%. August PCE, the last inflation report before the Oct 27-28 FOMC, lands today at 1…
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