JOLTS, PCE and payrolls will test the 66% October hike odds
Markets have already priced the question this week will answer: Kalshi gives a 66 percent chance to a 25 basis point rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Fed policy framework that decision rests on is the same one this week’s data stress-tests. Three scheduled prints sit between now and that decision, starting at 10:00 ET today with the August JOLTS print, and each will be read against a 10-year Treasury that settled at 5.241 percent on Monday, its highest since 2007.
Key Takeaways JOLTS job openings arrive Tuesday at 10:00 ET, with consensus centered near the prior range of about 6.7 million; a soft August reading is the week's first test of October hike odds. August core PCE lan…
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