Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Treasury's newest Operation Economic Outcast round goes after the professional layer that lets Iran monetize oil while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed: a law firm, two shipping agents and nine blocked vessels, seven cargo ships and two support craft, all tied to an Iranian LPG magnate's corporate network.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year Treasury is trading near 5.14 percent, resuming a September climb as term premium and the energy shock keep the long end elevated. Here is what the steepness and the level mean for rate expectations and duration risk.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The 3.7% US inflation rate hides a gasoline spike and a real-pay squeeze. A guide to the basket, its blind spots, and the next tests.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The Treasury curve has steepened with the long end elevated: 10-year at 5.09%, 30-year at 5.43%, after the 10-year peaked at 5.31% intraday on 2026-09-30. Against a 3.88% fed funds rate and a hot 3.7% CPI, here is what the steepness says about rate expectations and duration risk.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year holds at 5.09% as September CPI re-arms the October 28 FOMC. Inside the bond market doing the Fed's tightening ahead of the blackout.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
AI demand was never more real: TSMC profit up 68.7%, ASML orders to 2030, Anthropic's first profit. But CoreWeave's 14.8% bonds and a 5.1% ten-year re-armed the credit wall. The question is no longer whether the demand is real, it is who funds the next leg now that the capital stack is repricing.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
An executive order dated October 16 imposes the Graham Act's new tariff schedule, a 500 percent duty on Russian goods and 100 percent duties on the largest importers of Russian oil, then waives it all under the law's national-interest authority. Reported buyers India and China get breathing room through October 18.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Chair Warsh's pre-blackout IMF fireside with Kristalina Georgieva kept the October decision genuinely open: he restated the Fed's price-stability commitment and gave no new rate signal, letting markets price a hold.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
September retail sales rose 0.8% and jobless claims held at 199,000, a sturdy consumer read that leaves the Fed's Oct 27-28 decision about inflation, not growth.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Treasury cut off an Iraq-based dollar conduit bank, two Iranian offshore banks and a top Iranian oil-revenue trustee, tightening dollar clearing and oil payment channels while crude trades near 97 to 106 dollars a barrel.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
September PPI rose 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022, on a 20.3% gasoline surge. Here's what it means for the October FOMC.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The peso closed at its weakest level since November 2025 after hot US inflation raised the odds of more Fed hikes, shrinking the carry advantage Mexico once offered.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst