Russia sanctions waiver: Trump executive order suspends 500% tariff on Russian goods

President Trump signed an executive order on October 16 that formally brings the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into effect, then immediately suspended its most consequential measures. The order, published on the White House website early Saturday morning, sets a 500 percent tariff on goods from the Russian Federation and 100 percent duties on the largest importers of Russian oil and gas, but waives the entire new schedule under the law's section 115 national-interest authority.

The Graham Act, signed into law on September 18, cleared the way for a tariff-and-sanctions response to Russia's energy exports. Section 2 of the new executive order carries the schedule verbatim: "The rate of duty on goods from the Russian Federation shall be increased by 500 percent ad valorem, subject to the exceptions set forth in section 114 of the Graham Act and the waivers issued in section 4 of this order." A separate provision raises duties by 100 percent ad valorem on goods from the largest five importers of crude oil and natural gas that originated in Russia, but only "if the country knowingly makes new purchases of crude oil or natural gas that originated in the Russian Federation on or after October 18, 2026." A third clause applies the same 100 percent rate to the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion.

Related reading: U.S. and China Approved $30 Billion Goods Lists. Tariff Cuts Still Need Legal Action.

What makes this order stand out is not the tariff schedule but the waiver attached to it. Section 4(a) waives "the application of any duties provided for in sections 112 and 113 of the Graham Act or this order." Section 4(b) waives the sanctions provision in section 102(d) while adding that "nothing in this order affects any sanctions" issued under the prior March 24, 2026 executive order addressing Russian harmful foreign activities. The law's section 115 permits a waiver only with a written national-interest certification and an accompanying report to Congress, and the order states that certification and report were submitted.

The combined effect is that the punitive framework is enforced procedurally but suspended in substance. U.S. importers of Russian goods would face the 500 percent rate if the waiver lapses, and the countries that buy most of Russia's exported oil and natural gas, reported to be India and China, are shielded from the 100 percent retaliatory duty for as long as the waiver holds. The waivers remain in effect until the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative, determine that further action is appropriate.

For the broader framework, see our crude oil coverage.

Related reading: Brent-WTI Spread Widens to $11.60 as Russia Refinery Strikes Reprice Freight.

This is a policy and sanctions story before it is an oil-price story. The order does not remove a single barrel from the market; it holds the tariff club in reserve. For buyers of Russian crude who were facing a choice between paying a 100 percent penalty or finding replacement supply, the waiver converts a firm deadline into a monitored risk. The October 18 trigger date for new purchases is unchanged, but with the duty waived, the monitoring regime in section 3 of the order, run by the Trade Representative with input from State, Treasury and Energy, becomes the mechanism that decides whether the threat turns real.

The market consequences run through the same channel that has kept crude near $110, the intersection of Russian supply disruption risk with U.S. tariff policy. A tariff that never actually applies does not raise U.S. consumer prices, but a waiver that can be withdrawn on a determination of further action keeps an escalation option alive. The bull case for tight physical markets treats the waiver as Washington keeping pressure calibrated without jolting global refiners; the bear case notes that the schedule remains law, and a lapse or a change in administration could impose the duties with the full 500 percent and 100 percent rates intact.

Related reading: US Iran Ceasefire Market Resolves Yes: October 15 Passed Without a Strike on Iranian Soil.

What to watch next is the waiver's lifespan and the October 18 marker. Whether buyers treat the suspension as durable and keep signing new Russian crude contracts, or hold back against a possible revocation, will show up in export data and in the freight and differential markets over the coming weeks. Congressional reaction to the national-interest certification, and any determination by the Trade Representative that circumstances warrant ending the waiver, are the two events that would convert today's suspended tariffs into real prices.

Related reading: Ukraine's $27bn October cliff meets frozen EUR210bn.

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