Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Closed folders rest on an empty conference table, with vacant chairs fading into soft focus.

Prediction Markets

Fed Rate Markets Price 84.5% October Hold

Polymarket priced an October Fed hold at 84.5% on October 9, while the October 8 minutes said most officials expected another increase by year end.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 9, 20264 MIN READ

An unmarked oil tanker crosses a narrow sea passage, with another cargo vessel faintly visible in the haze.

Prediction Markets

Iran Ceasefire Odds Hold High as Hormuz Claims Diverge

Polymarket’s October 15 ceasefire market fell from 90.5% to 86.5% by 07:44 UTC on October 8, while US and Iranian claims about Hormuz remained sharply different.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 8, 20264 MIN READ

Closed wooden doors at an unmarked stone institutional entrance in warm late-afternoon light.

Prediction Markets

RBI Rate Hike Odds Resolve YES After October 7 Decision

Polymarket priced a 25 basis point RBI hike at 77.5% on October 6; the October 7 decision raised the repo rate to 5.50% and settled the contract YES.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 7, 20264 MIN READ

One brass-framed exchange entrance stands ajar beside closed doors in a stone-and-glass facade.

Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Kalshi launches US 500 stock index perpetual futures after CFTC approval

Kalshi launched the US500, the first stock-index perpetual on a US venue, a cash-settled contract on the MerQube US Large Cap Index deemed CFTC-approved October 2. What the funding model means for CME and ICE.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 6, 20265 MIN READ

Empty voting booths and chairs sit in a softly lit polling station.

Prediction Markets

Brazil Election Odds: Flávio Leads, October 25 Runoff Ahead

A lead at the ballot box is not an 84% vote share. First-round totals, exchange contracts and the real each answer a different question before Brazil votes again.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 6, 202613 MIN READ

Closed meeting-room doors with brass handles at the end of an empty, softly lit corridor.

Prediction Markets

RBI Rate Odds Rise as October Decision Nears: Hike at 78%

Polymarket put a 25-basis-point RBI hike at 78% on October 6 after a late Monday repricing, though the policy meeting does not announce its decision until October 7.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 6, 20264 MIN READ

An empty voting booth stands in a quiet civic hall beside unmarked ballot boxes.

Prediction Markets

Brazil First Round Puts Flávio at 81% to Win, Though Runoff Is Still a Contest

Brazil’s October 4 first-round count put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 1.89 points, while Polymarket priced him at 81.15% for the October 25 runoff.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 5, 20266 MIN READ

An empty financial exchange floor in soft dawn light, with all screens out of frame

Prediction Markets

Weak September jobs report cuts October Fed hike odds to 18%

After an inflation-driven reversal and a weak payroll print, Kalshi’s October hike odds fell sharply. The next test is September CPI on October 14.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 5, 20265 MIN READ

A plain baseball and blank clipped paper folios sit on opposite pans of a nearly level brass balance.

Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Illinois Sports-Contract Rules Blocked on Swaps Finding

Judge Pacold blocked Illinois sports-licensing against Kalshi and Coinbase, finding event contracts likely swaps. See what this means for prediction markets.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 3, 20263 MIN READ

An empty factory break room with plain chairs and a thermos on a table.

Prediction Markets

September Jobs Odds Slide as ADP Clears 90,000

On October 2, Kalshi priced a 49% chance that September payroll growth exceeded 90,000, down from 56% shortly after midnight, as traders weighed ADP's stronger private-sector report against a 95,000 consensus forecast.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 2, 20265 MIN READ

An unmarked folder rests on a meeting table, with empty chairs receding into shadow.

Prediction Markets

Iran's Cabinet Reads the American Counterproposal. The Odds Only Half Believe October.

Iran's cabinet has the latest US ceasefire response in front of it while Polymarket prices the ceasefire holding through the end of October at 57.5 cents and the strait reopening by then at 3 cents; the desk's four September ledger calls all settled correctly.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 1, 20264 MIN READ

An empty lecture-hall lectern and microphone stand before rows of vacant seats.

Prediction Markets

Fed Hold Odds Snap Back to 57 Percent: Williams Resets the October Ladder

One speech from the New York Fed president wiped two thirds off the October hike odds overnight, and the December ladder moved with it.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20266 MIN READ