Weak September jobs report cuts October Fed hike odds to 18%
As the week of October 5 begins, Kalshi’s October Fed hike contract reflects a sharp repricing: the 25-basis-point hike was priced at 65% on September 25, fell to 33% after the August PCE release on September 30, then stood at 18% following the September payroll report on October 2. That is a 47-percentage-point decline from the first snapshot, with the market still open. The odds now reflect two competing risks ahead of the October 27-28 meeting: persistent inflation and softer employment.
Key takeaways. Kalshi’s October 25-basis-point hike probability moved from 65% on September 25 to 33% on September 30 and 18% on October 2. The hold outcome was priced at 65% after PCE and 82% after jobs,…
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