Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Aerial view of a very large oil tanker navigating a narrow waterway flanked by barren cliffs, with a smaller ship alongside it.

Commodities

Oil Drops on Hormuz Resolution While Gold Holds $4,000

WTI crude is at $79.19/bbl after the U.S.-Iran MOU reopened the Strait of Hormuz, while gold futures hold $4,037/oz despite $8.9 billion in June ETF outflows.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 20261 MIN READ

Close-up of a partially open bank vault door with a large metal wheel handle, revealing a blurred hallway with marble walls and arches.

Macro

June CPI Falls to 3.9%: What It Means for Rate Cuts

June CPI is tracking at 3.9% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI remains at 2.85%, above the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC stays on hold, and late 2026 remains the earliest realistic window for cuts.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 20262 MIN READ

A close-up of a green and black gasoline pump nozzle inserted into the fuel tank of a grey car at a gas station at night.

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

June CPI Preview: What to Watch Tuesday, July 14

The June CPI print drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus expects headline inflation to fall to 3.9% on lower gasoline prices. Here is the reaction function that matters: where core lands, and what Chair Warsh says 90 minutes later.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20264 MIN READ

A man in a suit from behind, seated at a long table, facing a panel of blurred figures in a formal room, testifying.

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

What to Watch: Chair Warsh's First Congressional Testimony, July 14, 2026

Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, 2026. Here's the reaction function: what a hawkish or dovish surprise looks like and which markets transmit it first.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

A man in a suit speaks from a podium with two American flags flanking him, addressing an audience from behind.

MacroboltSpecial Coverage

Waller Puts Rate Hikes Back on the Table

Governor Waller's NYABE speech put rate hikes back on the table for the first time in 2026. He said the FOMC 'will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term' if this week's CPI data comes in hot. That is a material break from the patient, data-dependent posture markets expected.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

Three people stand on a hill overlooking a clean energy facility with wind turbines, solar panels, and industrial tanks by a lake.

Commodities

Matinas BioPharma Pivots to Canadian Clean Energy: Retail Holders Left With 9% Stake and -28% Day

A tiny New Jersey drugmaker trading at 54 cents a share announced Monday it is merging with a private Ontario clean energy startup, surrendering more than 90 percent of the combined company to the...

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 202611 MIN READ

Several gold bars stacked in the foreground with a blurred industrial oil refinery, including a flaring chimney, visible through a window in the background.

Commodities

Commodities Wrap: Oil Surges While Gold Dips on July 13

WTI crude jumped 4.4% to $74.55 as Hormuz tensions escalated. Gold fell to $4,059 and silver dropped to $58.10 as traders rotated into energy.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20263 MIN READ

Crowd of business people walking on a city street, many looking at their phones, with modern glass buildings in the background.

Macro

US Labor Market Shock: What 57,000 Payrolls Means

June payrolls came in at just 57,000 against a 110,000 forecast. The unemployment rate fell, but for all the wrong reasons. Here is what the data actually says and what it means for your portfolio.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

Three golden Bitcoin tokens standing upright on a stone ledge, with two blurred business people walking in front of a classical building in the background.

Crypto

Crypto Week Ahead: Warsh and CPI Are the Binary Catalysts for Bitcoin

Bitcoin enters the week at $62,771 with Fear and Greed at 28. Fed Chair Warsh testifies July 14-15 and June CPI drops July 16. Both events are binary catalysts for BTC.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20263 MIN READ

Rows of identical black binders on shelves stretch into the distance in a modern, dark-toned office with computer screens in background.

Macro

The Weekend Brief: The $15.6 Trillion Passive Tide: What Record ETF Assets Mean for Markets, the Fed, and Your Money

US-listed ETF assets under management crossed a record $15.6 trillion this week. Marcus Webb examines how the passive revolution has restructured the market's plumbing, remaking price discovery, complicating Fed transmission, and concentrating $15.6T into a handful of index exposures.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 12, 20265 MIN READ

Double exposure showing a hand placing documents on a table, superimposed over a cityscape with tall, classic buildings at dusk.

Macro

How Iran's Supreme Leader Network Hid Hundreds of Millions in Western Real Estate, and the Three Shadow Banks That Kept the Cash Flowing

A Saint Kitts holding company, luxury hotels in Frankfurt, apartments on London's Billionaires' Row - and the Treasury designations tracing them to Iran's Supreme Leader network and three shadow exchange houses.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 11, 202617 MIN READ

A wire basket of groceries (bread, milk, bananas, cans, eggs, rice) and an empty wallet on a counter, with the Federal Reserve building visible through a window in the background.

Macro

Inflation at 4.2%: What the Fed's Next Move Means for You

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 10, 20265 MIN READ