Gold price reclaims $4,195 after hot September CPI

Gold absorbed September's hot CPI and a brief October hike scare to reclaim the rebound toward $4,195 in Friday trading, after dipping to a one-week low near $4,158 on Thursday. A softer dollar and a ten-year yield at a three-week low removed the two headwinds that had capped the metal, and it has spent the week fighting the $4,200 level.

September's CPI, released Wednesday, showed core inflation up 2.6% year over year, per the brief's sourced tables, hot enough to briefly push odds of an October Fed hike to about 50%. The ten-year yield jumped and gold slid to its low before the repricing ran out of steam. Fed speakers Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly then signalled patience, and the market pared hike odds toward roughly 27%, according to CNBC.

Related reading: Gold Holds $4,110 as the 29K Payrolls Miss Cuts October Odds.

That flipped the tape. The dollar index slipped to about 102, the ten-year yield fell to a three-week low near 5.13%, and gold was reclaiming the rebound toward $4,195 in Friday trading, per Yahoo Finance data. GLD gained 1.79% and SLV 3.39% on the week, though silver's underlying quote still sits below $58.

What stands out to me this week is the metal's repeated failure to sustain any break above $4,200. Each push above that round number got sold back into the $4,180-4,220 resistance band, which has now capped gold on several occasions. Support is firmer near $4,100, and that is the line to watch if the range rolls over again.

For the broader framework, see our gold coverage.

Related reading: Gold price holds $4,110-4,160 as hedge funds and ETFs split on positioning.

The deciding macro event is the October 27-28 FOMC. If Fed patience holds, gold keeps the $4,100-4,220 range with another test of $4,200 the likely path; a re-accelerating core print that forces an October hike would re-tighten real rates and cap the metal near the upper band. I would be watching the $4,200 level and whether any Fed speaker walks the patient tone back before then.

Related reading: Fed October Hike: Hot Core CPI Re-arms the Oct 27-28 FOMC.

Related reading: Gold price holds near $4,100 after a two-month low: central banks keep buying.

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