The Weekend Brief: The AI Capex Reckoning: When Big Tech's Spending Bets Collide With Investor Reality
Three data points arrived this week that, taken individually, look like noise. Taken together, they describe the same structural shift: the AI capital expenditure supercycle is bifurcating, and the companies that built their equity stories on the application layer are now absorbing the bill for infrastructure that was always going to cost more than the models projected. Key Takeaways Alphabet's Q2 2026 free cash flow turned negative for the first time in years as AI infrastructure spending absorbed earnings gains despite a revenue beat and Gemini reaching 950 million monthly active users. Nvidia reportedly locked down SK Hynix's entire HBM production capacity through a reported $500 billion…
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