June PCE Preview: What Consensus Expects and How Markets Will React
Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the June Personal Income and Outlays report, which contains the Fed's preferred inflation measure: the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The print arrives the morning after the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% target range for the fourth consecutive meeting, and about ninety minutes before the GDP advance estimate for Q2 hits at the same timestamp. Both reports together will shape the macro narrative heading into August. Key Takeaways Consensus expects headline PCE to fall -0.1% month-over-month in June, which would mark the first monthly decline in several months, driven primarily…
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