Gold price and silver at records into a hawkish Fed: what's driving the metals bid

Gold holds at $4,175 and silver is pressing on $58 even as the market prices a 92% chance the Federal Reserve hikes in December. The surprise is not the precious metals bid. The surprise is what is driving it: a slide in crude that is quietly lowering inflation expectations and keeping the October hike odds far from a done deal, so real yields stay contained enough for bullion to drift higher. Copper, meanwhile, is running on a different engine entirely, China's better-than-expected growth and a drawing warehouse inventory.

Key Takeaways Gold spot is up 0.3% to $4,175.60 and December futures up 0.4% to $4,196.40, holding a record as softer oil and sub-peak Fed-hike odds cap real-rate pressure…