Gold Price Holds as Central Bank Buying Hits a Record in Q2

Gold is trading on two opposing forces at once, and Wednesday's CPI print is the referee. The metal rose about 0.6% to near $4,190 an ounce, with December futures at $4,216, on the strongest quarter of official buying on record: central banks added 289 tonnes in the second quarter, according to the World Gold Council. The other force, a roughly 5.3% 10-year Treasury yield and a dollar near an 18-month high, has kept a hard cap over that rally into the data.

The structural bid is as strong as it has been in this cycle. The 289 tonnes of Q2 official buying is a record quarter at the World Gold Council, and the buying has been broad and persistent. China added roughly 21 tonnes in September, its 23rd consecutive month of reported purchases, lifting its holdings to a record 2,366 tonnes. Poland has added about 82 tonnes this year as it builds toward a 700-tonne target. The same data show the dollar's share of global reserves easing to 56.7%, and roughly 45% of reserve managers say they plan to add gold. That official-sector bid is the floor under the metal.

Related reading: Gold Holds Near $4,400 as Central Banks Absorb Supply.

The cap is equally real. A 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3% and a dollar near an 18-month high raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and the oil-driven inflation narrative keeps Fed Chair Warsh firmly in hawkish territory, which supports the dollar. That combination has pulled gold about 3% off its high for the month. Over the past month the December contract has traded between $4,140.7 and $4,424.9, averaging $4,261.8, a consolidation off the September record rather than a breakdown.

Spot at $4,190 holds the same shelf as the prior session. Nearby support sits near $4,157 and then $4,090, with resistance around $4,233. The range is what a one-month consolidation looks like when bulls and a hawkish macro wall are both doing their jobs.

For the broader framework, see our gold coverage.

Related reading: Central Banks Bought a Record 289 Tonnes of Gold in Q2.

The bank forecasts bracket how much room either side has. Goldman sees gold at $4,900 by the end of 2026. Bank of America is more cautious, projecting a $4,000 average for the fourth quarter and warning that physical demand is soft and that the ETF inflows that have carried the bid for two months could reverse, possibly with central banks selling on escalation. That caution is worth taking seriously; it is a flows story, not a guess at the trend.

Wednesday's CPI for September is the swing input, and it has not printed yet. The New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation expectations up 0.3 percentage point to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023, with three-year expectations at 3.3%, so the run-in favors a hot read. If the print comes in hot, it reinforces the hawkish Fed and strong-dollar channel that caps gold. A soft print relieves the real-yield and dollar headwind and is the cleaner upside path for the metal.

Related reading: Gold Holds Above $4,400 as Central Bank Buying Provides Support.

Silver is a different trade. It bounced about 0.5% to near $60.6, but it is down roughly 9% from its September peak and about 4% on the month. It lacks gold's safe-haven bid, stays capped by the same strong dollar, and moves with higher beta to the metal complex. The oil-gold coupling also cuts in one direction: higher crude feeds the inflation narrative that caps gold, which is why an easing of Middle East supply risk helps the metal more than an escalation does.

What tips the next leg is Wednesday's print. Watch whether gold holds $4,157 into the release; a soft CPI that relieves the dollar and real-yield cap is the more constructive outcome, while a hot number reinforces the hawkish channel that has held the metal in its month-long range. The structural bid from official buying is the floor. The question, going into Wednesday, is what the near-term cap does about it.

Related reading: Gold price sits 26% below its record, but central banks and a $5,013 forecast say the pullback is a base.

Sources

World Gold Council central-bank demand data, which covers the 289-tonne Q2 figure, the 56.7% dollar reserve share and China's 2,366-tonne holdings, is cited through GoldSilver.com. Bank of America's commodities research, including the $4,000 Q4 average and its physical-demand and ETF-flow caution, is cited through InvestingLive. The 10-year yield near 5.3% reflects the surging-yields theme covered by CNBC. Spot and futures levels for gold and silver come from Yahoo Finance quotes for GC=F and SI=F, retrieved 13 Oct 2026. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations was released 12 Oct 2026.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.