Gold and Oil Are Sending Conflicting Inflation Signals

Oil jumped 4% Tuesday on Iranian strikes against US forces and Saudi Arabia's Eastern Region oil facilities. Gold barely moved. For two commodities that both carry reputations as inflation hedges, that split tells you something worth paying attention to right now. Key Takeaways WTI crude surged to $82.54 (+3.55%) and Brent to $87.76 (+4.36%) on July 29, 2026, after Iranian forces struck US troops and Saudi oil infrastructure for the second consecutive day. Gold held at $4,020/oz above the $4,000 floor, delivering a near-flat session after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, a non-reaction that signals the hold was fully priced in. CME FedWatch now prices an 82.2% probability of a September ra…
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