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Gold Breaks $4,000, Silver Fades, Oil Surges 10%: The FOMC Trade Setup

David Morales
David MoralesCommodities Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published July 17, 20269 min read
Warehouse interior filled with rows of stacked black oil barrels in the foreground and shelves of shining gold bars in the background.
A warehouse scene, where black oil barrels are arranged in the foreground while stacks of gold bars glitter in the background. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Gold closed at $3,985.73 on July 16, breaking below the $4,000 level that had held as support since late June. WTI crude finished the week at $79.75, up 10.1% from $72.45 five sessions earlier. Those two moves tell the same story from opposite directions: geopolitical and macro forces are pulling commodities apart, and the FOMC meeting on July 28-29 is the event that determines whether the split resolves or widens.

Key Takeaways Gold closed at $3,985.73 on July 16 (per Polygon.io), breaking below the $4,000 level on stronger-than-expected June retail sales of +0.2%; the next support zone is $3,900-$3,920. WTI crude surged 10.1% in five sessions to $79.75, driven by US military strikes on Iran…

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