Gold at $4,020: What the CFTC Crowd and Fed Hold Signal Next

Gold is sitting at $4,020/oz this morning, and the price tells you almost nothing. The non-reaction to yesterday's Fed hold tells you everything. Key Takeaways Gold held $4,000 support after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 because the hold was already fully priced in before the announcement. CFTC COT data (July 21) shows speculative traders at 183,910 net long contracts, representing 58.6% of open interest, a crowd crowded enough to create forced-selling risk if the September hike narrative firms. CME FedWatch now prices an 82.2% probability of a September rate hike, up from roughly 38% at the start of July. That is the most serious rate risk gold has faced this year. WTI crude…