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FOMC October Meeting Hinges on CPI After September Hike, M2 at Fastest Since 2021

Sarah Chen
Sarah ChenSenior Macro Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 13, 202611 min read
A shopping cart stands in a quiet supermarket produce aisle, with shelves fading into soft focus.
Consumer prices are the next test for the Fed’s October rate decision. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

September ended the debate about whether the Federal Reserve would hike at all. October will decide whether that hike was the beginning of a tightening path or a one-time catch-up, and one number, tomorrow's core CPI, now carries most of the weight for the Oct 27-28 meeting.

Key Takeaways The Fed hiked 25 basis points in September to a funds target band of 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase of the year cycle, and the Oct 27-28 FOMC is debating a second one. Weak September payrolls (+29,000, unemployment 4.2%) cut October-hike futures odds from roughly 70% to about 20%. M2 reached $23,342.8B in August, up 5.66% year over year, its fastest money growth since 2021. September CPI lands Wednesday 12:…

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