FOMC October 2026 preview: 85.1% hold priced, but December hike odds jump to 77-87%

Markets have converged on an 85.1% implied chance that the Federal Reserve leaves the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, October 28, at 14:00 ET, per CME FedWatch data reported by TokenPost on October 22. That consensus is the calm half of the story. The other half is where the real repricing has happened: implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December 9 meeting have jumped to roughly 77-87% in the span of a few sessions, with Robinhood Economics pricing the December hike at 77% and GGMA's preview at 87%. A ten-point gap between two venues on the same date is itself a signal that the December market is unsettled rather than a smooth c…