macro

Fed Policy: September CPI Report Tests a Fed on Hold at 4%

Published October 12, 20264 min read

An unmarked diesel fuel-pump nozzle rests against a softly lit, empty forecourt. — An energy-price shock adds pressure to the Fed’s decision as September inflation data approaches. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The Federal Reserve meets again on October 27, and the week of October 12 is when the market finds out whether the committee treats its September hike as a one-off or the start of a second tightening move. The single number that does that work lands Wednesday at 12:30 UTC, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI. Consensus, carried in the week's events file, is for headline inflation of plus 0.6% month over month and plus 3.6% year over year, against August's plus 0.4% and plus 3.4%. Core is expected at plus 0.2% month over month and plus 2.5% year over year, versus August's plus 0.3% and plus 2.4%.

Key takeaways: September CPI posts Wednesday at 12:30 UTC, consensus plus 0…

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