Fed Holds but September Hike Odds Hit 82%: What the FOMC Decision Means for Markets

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% today, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh delivered the unanimous decision at 2 PM ET, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting since the committee's final 25-basis-point cut in Q1 2026. On the surface, nothing moved. Beneath it, everything did. Key Takeaways The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, 2026, the third consecutive hold since Q1 2026. CME FedWatch prices an 82.2% probability of a September 2026 rate hike, up from roughly 38% at the start of July. June CPI fell to 3.46% YoY (from 4.17% in May), but the Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE, rose to 3.41% YoY through May 2026, running 141…