Fed December Rate Hike Odds Near 76% on Kalshi as October Pausing

Markets have stopped treating the Federal Reserve as done for 2026, and the forward curve says so in numbers. December 9 hike odds stand near 76%, per Kalshi's KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 contract, which traded at 0.75 bid and 0.76 ask on October 22, even as the October meeting is priced as a hold. That combination reads one way: investors see the late-October decision as a pause, not a peak, and they have started paying for a year-end move.

Key Takeaways Kalshi's October FOMC contract prices a hold near 0.90 and a 25 basis point hike near 0.10 ahead of the October 28 decision, a reading that diverges from CME FedWatch-style tools, so the October and December outlooks do not settle in the same di…