Warsh Holds: Three Signals the FOMC Statement Sends for September
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, as Chair Kevin Warsh concluded the FOMC's two-day meeting without a rate change. The decision landed exactly where markets expected it. The statement, however, contained three signals that matter far more than the hold itself. Key Takeaways The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, 2026, unchanged since Q1 2026. CME FedWatch prices an 82.2% probability of a September hike, up from roughly 38% in early July. Core PCE ran at 3.41% YoY through May 2026, well above the Fed's 2% target, with June data not available until August 29. The July CPI print on August 12 is the most consequential data release before the Septem…
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