
September FOMC: Fed Hikes to 4% in Hawkish Surprise
The Federal Reserve's September 2026 rate outlook turned hawkish after a unanimous hike to 4%. Learn what the new dot plot and rate path mean for markets.
Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

The Federal Reserve's September 2026 rate outlook turned hawkish after a unanimous hike to 4%. Learn what the new dot plot and rate path mean for markets.

Kalshi's NFL Week 1 vig of 4.32% beat DraftKings at 4.51% and FanDuel at 4.44%, marking the first time the prediction market priced straight bets cheaper than legacy sportsbooks during the NFL season.

U.S. employers announced 52,881 job cuts in August 2026, up 58% from July but down 38% from the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The latest ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs reveal supplier deliveries are slowing for the ninth and tenth consecutive month respectively, with prices paid continuing to rise even as inventory growth moderates.

Shelter and energy pushed the average household budget roughly $50 higher in August, with natural gas delivering the single biggest shock.

Polymarket contracts price Democratic House control at 87.5 percent as generic ballot polling shows a lead of eight to twelve points.

The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.97% pushed mortgage rates to 6.76%, driving total applications down 4.1% and leaving 80% of homeowners trapped in lower-rate mortgages.

Active listings increased 3.6 percent year over year to 1.14 million while 20.4 percent of sellers cut prices, matching August 2025 levels.

The five largest cloud providers collectively spent $210 billion in Q2 2026 and raised guidance to nearly $900 billion for the year.

Container shipping rates fell for the fifteenth consecutive week while oil tanker freight hit record highs on geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Initial claims held near 206,000 while JOLTS hiring fell to a six-month low, signaling firms are neither expanding nor cutting.

The national average for regular gasoline reached $4.329 per gallon on September 15, 2026, up 13 cents from the previous week and $1.15 from a year ago.