Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Equity Perpetual Futures Get First US Trading Green Light

The CFTC said equity perpetual futures on single stocks can begin US trading for the first time, ending the regulatory gap that had pushed the no-expiry derivatives offshore. No exchange or launch date is named yet.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 3, 20263 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Senate control odds firm to 77.5% as Election Day opens

Polymarket priced Democratic control of the Senate at 77.5% on Election Day morning, up five points from Monday, while the House leg of the same control pair held at 94.5%.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 3, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Midterm markets narrow to a Senate call as the House is near the board

With Election Day a day away, Polymarket prices Democratic House control at 94.5% and the Senate at 72.5%, leaving a full sweep near 71% on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 2, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Hormuz Event Markets Settle No for the October 31 Blockade as the War Rolls On

October 31 was a deadline that graded. The Hormuz event contracts settled no on the blockade and reopening ladders while the ceasefire market held near yes. Midterm odds and the December fed ladder round out a week that closed one window and opened another.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 2, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

2026 midterm odds: Democratic sweep firms to 68.5%

Five days before the 2026 midterms, Polymarket's Balance of Power market prices a unified Democratic Congress at 68.5 percent, up from 66.5 percent on October 22, with the Senate now the swing chamber.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 30, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction MarketsboltSpecial Coverage

Polymarket halts trading after user funds drained in third-party breach

Polymarket halted international trading after an exploit drained user funds via a third-party provider breach, then resumed after about an hour.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 29, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed rate odds: October hold contract settles as December bar holds near 81.5%

Kalshi's October decision ladder settled with the 3.75 percent strike resolving yes and the 4.00 percent strike no, confirming the hold, while the 4.00 percent December contract still trades near an 81.5 percent implied probability after the 10-2 vote.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 29, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Israel next PM odds: Polymarket prices Netanyahu at 45.5% as Eizenkot slides to 26.1%

Polymarket repriced Israel's next-prime-minister market through election night, lifting Benjamin Netanyahu to 45.5% and cutting Gadi Eizenkot to 26.1%, even as both contracts passed their resolution time without settling.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 28, 20265 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Israel election 2026 odds: Yashar 72.5% to win most Knesset seats as hung-Knesset price holds 86%

On Israeli election day, Kalshi prices Yashar to win the most Knesset seats at 72.5% while a companion market holds no-bloc-majority at 86%, a 22-point gap between plurality and power that captures the election's central tension.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 27, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

2026 midterm odds: split Congress now 26.5 percent on Polymarket

Eight days before the November 3 midterms, Polymarket's balance-of-power event prices a Democratic sweep at 64.5 percent, down from 66.5 percent on October 22, while the split-Congress outcome of a Republican Senate and Democratic House has firmed to 26.5 percent.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 26, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed October 2026 odds: Kalshi prices a 94% hold, December still sees a hike

Kalshi prices about a 94% chance the Fed holds the funds upper bound at 4.00% on October 28, but event markets still imply near a 79% chance of a hike by December 9. The odds heading into the decision.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 26, 20264 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

Fed December 2026 hike odds: Polymarket prices 74.5% for a 25 bps move after jobless claims print at 194,000

Prediction markets put a 74.5 percent chance on a 25 basis point Fed hike December 9, firmed by today's 194,000 jobless claims print, while October is priced as a hold near 92 percent.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 23, 20267 MIN READ