macroboltSpecial Coverage

Waller speech on economic outlook: Fed governor backs December rate hike

Published November 10, 20264 min read

An empty conference lectern stands before softly blurred rows of chairs in a dim hall. — Waller’s speech shifted attention to the size of a possible December Fed rate hike. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Fed Governor Christopher Waller crossed a line on Tuesday. Speaking to the Bank of England and its Watchers conference in London on the economic outlook, he no longer defended the previous minutes' hold. He endorsed a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting as his base case, and he left a larger move on the table if the October CPI, which prints later today, confirms that inflation is still running hot. That is a hawkish signal on the inflation axis, and it moves the December narrative from whether the Fed tightens to how much.

Key Takeaways Waller says he is "leaning toward supporting" a 25 basis point hike at the December 8 to 9 FOMC meeting. If October core CPI prints near 0.3% or…

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