Stablecoin supply shrinks ~$15B in a month as a hotter Fed path dries up crypto dry powder

Key takeaways

Aggregate stablecoin supply fell to about $291.5B as of Nov 10, down roughly 4.9% month over month (about $15B) and 1.6% week over week, per DeFi Llama - the clearest shrinking-cushion signal in the current crypto de-risking. The December Fed decision is now the operative macro variable: Kalshi prices a 25bp hike at 86% and a larger hike at 10% after October CPI came in hot. Bitcoin spot ETF outflows persist at roughly $1.48B month to date, but cumulative inflows since 2024 remain positive at $55.6B - institutional de-risking inside a large footprint, not a wholesale unwind. Ether is the structurally weaker flow line: a third straight ETF outflow and a roughly 58% drawdown from…