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Crude Slid Below $100 but the Diesel Crack Hit a Record $104: The Trade Inside Russia's Refining Hole

David Morales
David MoralesCommodities Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 22, 202610 min read
Refinery distillation towers and pipeline valves glowing under a dusky amber sky.
With millions of barrels of Russian refining capacity offline, the diesel crack — not crude — is where the war premium now lives. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The futures that matter moved in opposite directions on 22 September. Spot gold settled the session near $4,366.70, down 0.39%, while silver came in near $66.08, off 0.50%. Brent traded around $97.58 and WTI near $93.40, both up on the day but well off the $103.87 Brent settle from 18 September. The strip of quotes tells the real story: metals are digesting a large run into a dollar-and-rate pullback, and crude is giving back a war premium, while the actual supply squeeze has moved into the refined-product crack.

Key Takeaways Gold held $4,333 (the one-month low tested 14-15 Sep) into a firmer dollar and a 5%-area long end, closing near $4,366.70 on 22 Sep. Silver tracked gold with higher bet…

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