Q2 2026 Employment Cost Index: What It Means for Fed Policy
The Q2 2026 Employment Cost Index came in at +0.9% quarter-over-quarter, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, topping the +0.8% consensus estimate compiled by MarketWatch and Dow Jones Newswires. For civilian workers on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, the year-over-year rate decelerated to 3.3%, falling short of the 3.5% expectation from the Action Economics survey. One number beats, the other misses, and that split tells the Fed's inflation-watchers more than either figure alone. Key Takeaways Q2 2026 total compensation for civilian workers rose +0.9% q/q (seasonally adjusted), beating the +0.8% consensus by 0.1 percentage point. The year-over-year rate fe…
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