October CPI preview: December Fed rate hike odds near 80%

October CPI lands on Tuesday as the deciding variable for the December Fed decision, and the pricing has already moved hard toward a hike this week. A hotter-than-expected October jobs report on Friday, alongside a historic tech rout two days earlier, lifted the market-implied odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting to roughly 80% (CME FedWatch put them at 79.1% as of November 6), up from 67% before the payrolls print. That makes Tuesday's CPI the hinge: a number near the Cleveland Fed's nowcast keeps the hike on track, while a soft print leaves room for the market to unwind some of that repricing almost as quickly as it built.

Key Takeaways October CPI publishes Tuesday, Nov…