Mortgage Rates Cross 7 Percent Again While Gasoline Holds Above $4.48

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03 percent in Freddie Mac's survey for the week of September 24, the first print above 7 percent since January 2025, and it arrived in the same month the EIA's weekly gasoline survey crossed $4.48 a gallon. The two numbers together describe the squeeze this column tracks: the cost of borrowing a house and the cost of moving through the week are both running at levels last seen in 2022, while the incomes paying for them grew about 4 percent over the year. This is the week of September 28 in household costs, in dollars.

The mortgage line crossed 7 again

Freddie Mac's survey has moved in one direction for a month: 6.66 the week of August 27, 6.71, 6.76, 6.95, then 7.03. That is a 37-basis-point climb in four weeks, and it follows the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 and a 10-year Treasury yield that has traded above 5 percent. For a household buying the median existing home, each 100 basis points on the 30-year adds roughly $190 a month per $300,000 borrowed. The move from 6.66 to 7.03 is most of that, on its own, inside five weeks. This climb mirrors Gas at $4.32 and a 6.95 Percent Mortgage: The Two Lines Squeezing Households Right Now.

The payment math is the part that matters to readers. At 7.03 percent, a $300,000 mortgage costs about $2,007 a month in principal and interest, against roughly $1,921 at 6.66 percent. That difference is $86 a month, or about $1,032 a year, for the identical house. Refinancing out of a 3 percent loan remains out of reach for almost everyone who has one, which keeps existing inventory locked and pushes buyers toward the smaller, more expensive new-home market.

Gasoline at a level the calendar says should be falling

EIA's weekly survey of 90,000 stations put regular at $4.478 a gallon for the week of September 21. A year earlier the same survey read $3.118. The seasonal pattern, in a normal year, runs the other way: refinery maintenance ends in October, the summer blend requirement lapses in mid-September, and pump prices typically fall 20 to 30 cents between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. This year the Hormuz disruption and the Russian diesel export ban have the product market priced for shortage into the fall, and the pump is where households pay for it. This seasonally odd level echoes Gas Hits $4.48 for the First Time Since 2022, and This Is the Season It Usually Falls.

The monthly CPI figures tell the same story more slowly. August's average gasoline price was $4.20 a gallon per the BLS average-price series, up from $4.094 in July and 27.5 percent above August 2025's $3.295. The CPI energy index rose 16.3 percent over the year. Diesel, which rides into grocery and goods prices through freight, has been running near record levels, and the supply chain desk has tracked the pass-through there. Grocery inflation, for contrast, is tame by recent standards: the food-at-home index is up 2.2 percent year over year, with eggs at $6.92 a dozen (up 9.6 percent) and milk at $2.27 (down 36.7 percent from last year's spike). We’ve tracked the freight side in Diesel Sets a New Record at $6.53 While Crude Slides. Your Groceries Don't Care About Crude..

What Wednesday's PCE print decides

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, lands Wednesday, September 30, with Q2 GDP the same morning. Our arithmetic from the monthly indexes puts August headline PCE near 3.7 percent year over year and core near 3.3 percent, still well above the 2 percent target. The Bureau's headline CPI ran 0.32 percent in August on the month. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is the next decision point, and the Fed has already signaled one more hike is possible; a core PCE print at or above 3.3 percent keeps that door open and keeps pressure on the long end of the curve, which is what the mortgage rate reads.

Consumers are not keeping pace on every front. Real average weekly earnings, the FRED series that deflates paychecks by prices, sat at $378 in the second quarter against $376 a year before: real wages are flat, up about half a percent. When the mortgage crosses 7 and the pump crosses $4.48 in the same month, flat real pay is the third line of the squeeze.

Two dated events carry the next move. Wednesday, September 30: August PCE and Q2 GDP at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Wednesday, October 14: the September CPI report, which will show whether the early-September gasoline spike ($4.319 and $4.478 in the weekly survey) feeds into the monthly index the way July's did. On the mortgage side, the Freddie Mac survey prints every Thursday morning; if the 10-year holds above 5 percent, the survey has room to move higher from 7.03 before it has any reason to fall. The one actionable line for readers is the one this column always gives: a mortgage rate lock is the household's only real hedge here, and the cost of waiting four weeks this month was 37 basis points.

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