Daily coverage · Sarah Chen

Macro

Rates, inflation, central banks and the policy decisions that move markets.

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June CPI Falls to 3.9%: What It Means for Rate Cuts

June CPI is tracking at 3.9% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI remains at 2.85%, above the Fed's 2% target. The FOMC stays on hold, and late 2026 remains the earliest realistic window for cuts.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 20262 MIN READ

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Macro

CPI at 3.9% and the Fed Rate-Cut Paradox: What the June Data Really Means

June CPI tracks at 3.9% as gasoline prices ease, but core inflation at 2.85% refuses to break. The FOMC is trapped between a softening headline and a hawkish yield curve bear-steepening at the 30-year.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 202611 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

June CPI Preview: What to Watch Tuesday, July 14

The June CPI print drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus expects headline inflation to fall to 3.9% on lower gasoline prices. Here is the reaction function that matters: where core lands, and what Chair Warsh says 90 minutes later.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20264 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

What to Watch: Chair Warsh's First Congressional Testimony, July 14, 2026

Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, 2026. Here's the reaction function: what a hawkish or dovish surprise looks like and which markets transmit it first.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

Waller Puts Rate Hikes Back on the Table

Governor Waller's NYABE speech put rate hikes back on the table for the first time in 2026. He said the FOMC 'will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term' if this week's CPI data comes in hot. That is a material break from the patient, data-dependent posture markets expected.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

US Labor Market Shock: What 57,000 Payrolls Means

June payrolls came in at just 57,000 against a 110,000 forecast. The unemployment rate fell, but for all the wrong reasons. Here is what the data actually says and what it means for your portfolio.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

Stagflation Risk: June CPI Preview and Fed Policy at a Crossroads

June CPI drops July 14 as Fed Chair Warsh testifies. With CPI at 4.2% and only 57K payrolls in June, the US faces classic stagflationary tension. Premium pre-event analysis.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20267 MIN READ

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Macro

Yield Curve Re-Normalization: Fixed Income in a Stagflationary Cycle

The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread has returned to +36 basis points, ending a prolonged inversion. In a stagflationary environment defined by 4.2% CPI and 57,000 payrolls, where should bond investors position?

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20267 MIN READ

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Macro

The Weekend Brief: The $15.6 Trillion Passive Tide: What Record ETF Assets Mean for Markets, the Fed, and Your Money

US-listed ETF assets under management crossed a record $15.6 trillion this week. Marcus Webb examines how the passive revolution has restructured the market's plumbing, remaking price discovery, complicating Fed transmission, and concentrating $15.6T into a handful of index exposures.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 12, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

How Iran's Supreme Leader Network Hid Hundreds of Millions in Western Real Estate, and the Three Shadow Banks That Kept the Cash Flowing

A Saint Kitts holding company, luxury hotels in Frankfurt, apartments on London's Billionaires' Row - and the Treasury designations tracing them to Iran's Supreme Leader network and three shadow exchange houses.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 11, 202617 MIN READ

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Macro

The Fort Knox Audit That Wasn't: What Treasury Documents Actually Say

In February 2025, the most famous vault in America became the subject of an extraordinary public spectacle. President Donald Trump declared he would send his...

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 11, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Inflation at 4.2%: What the Fed's Next Move Means for You

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 10, 20265 MIN READ

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