June CPI Falls to 3.9%: What It Means for Rate Cuts
June headline CPI is tracking at 3.9% year-over-year per the Cleveland Fed Nowcast, down from May's 4.2%, and the single driver is gasoline prices. That is good news for the monthly number. It is not a green light for rate cuts. Key Takeaways June CPI is nowcast at 3.9% YoY (Cleveland Fed, July 13), down from 4.2% in May, driven by a roughly 1.1% monthly decline in gasoline prices after the Strait of Hormuz partial reopening. Core CPI for June is estimated near 2.85% YoY, barely changed from May's 2.9%, confirming underlying inflation is not solved. The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17 in a unanimous 12-0 vote, with no forward guidance on timing of cuts. The relief in the headline n…
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