June CPI Preview: What to Watch Tuesday, July 14
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Consensus expects a monthly decline of 0.1%, which would pull the annual rate from May's 4.2% to roughly 3.9%. That sounds like good news, and in one narrow sense it is. But the number that actually moves markets and shapes Federal Reserve policy is core CPI, and that is where Tuesday's decision tree branches. Key Takeaways Consensus expects headline CPI at -0.1% month-over-month, pulling the annual rate from 4.2% to approximately 3.9%, per IG Markets and BMO Capital Markets previews dated July 13, 2026. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) is expected at +0.2% m/m / +2.9% y/y; a reading at +0.3% m/m would close the door o…
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