Daily coverage · Sarah Chen

Macro

Rates, inflation, central banks and the policy decisions that move markets.

Stacks of gold bars, a grocery basket full of food, and a gas pump nozzle in front of the Federal Reserve building.

Macro Deep Dive: Stagflation Returns, Fed Under Warsh, Gold Wins

May CPI reaccelerated to 4.2% YoY as the Fed freezes under Chair Warsh. With stagflation confirmed, gold emerges as the structural winner: three independent pillars support the thesis, while equities face multiple compression. The June CPI print on July 14 determines pace, not direction.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 10, 202612 MIN READ

Collage of an oil refinery, the Federal Reserve building, an oil tanker, a large pipeline, and groceries, under a smoky sky.

Macro

Iran Conflict & Hot Inflation Put Fed in a Corner

Iran re-escalation sends oil surging and traps the Fed between hot 4.2% inflation and a weakening labor market. What the July 8 strikes mean for rates.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 9, 20265 MIN READ

An illustration showing a golden oil pipe dripping a large golden oil drop connected to a jagged line, leading to a ladder a person carries a building on.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

Iran Strikes and Energy Shock Put Fed's Rate Path on Trial

U.S. strikes on 90+ Iranian targets reignite energy supply shock as Brent hits $78/bbl. How the Iran escalation tests Fed Chair Warsh's rate path with PCE at 4.2% and June CPI due July 14.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 9, 20261 MIN READ

Several gold bars on a table in the foreground. In the background, a large classical building, an oil refinery with a flame, and data servers.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

Fed on Hold, Oil Spike, Sticky Inflation: The Macro Pressure Cooker of July 2026

Fed holds at 3.63% as PCE stickiness persists, Hormuz geopolitical risk spikes oil, and Q2 growth may be flattering. Full cross-asset positioning framework.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 8, 20269 MIN READ

Federal Reserve building with neoclassical architecture and large columns, illuminated by late afternoon sun. Two blurred figures and cars in the foreground.

Macro

What the Fed's Pause Means for Your Portfolio Right Now

The Federal Reserve has pressed pause on rate cuts for the rest of 2026. Here's what that actually means for your savings, investments, and overall portfolio, explained in plain terms.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 8, 20261 MIN READ

Five business people, three men and two women, in dark suits sit around a glass conference table in a modern office with city skyscrapers visible outside the window at dusk. They are engaged in discussion, with laptops open in front of them.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

SEC Release 2026-44: Inside the Decade-Long M&A Law Firm Insider Trading Ring

On May 6, 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice jointly announced charges against 30 individuals in connection with wh

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 8, 202623 MIN READ

Three businessmen in suits look at smartphones in front of a classical building, possibly a stock exchange, with other people and camera crew nearby.

Macro

Jobs Miss Meets Record Dow: Global Markets in Triage

Dow hit a record 52,900 on July 6 even as June payrolls missed badly at 57,000. Gold holds above $4,100. Nasdaq falls as AI chip stocks extend losses.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 7, 20262 MIN READ

Government building with large columns in foreground, business people walking on steps, cargo port with container ships and cranes in background.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

The Fed's Inflation Bind and the Tariff Regime

The Fed revised PCE inflation to 3.6% as tariffs rebuild. A 9-9 FOMC split, weak payrolls at 57K, and gold's $6,000 Q4 target shape the macro setup into Q2 earnings.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 7, 20261 MIN READ

An illustration of a tall, golden bar standing upright, with three different abstract, light-grey shapes hovering above it.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

Stagflation Risk Returns: A Three-Pillar Macro Analysis

Gold surged 2% as three macro forces: Iran War energy shock, Warsh's hawkish Fed, and NATO tensions, create a textbook stagflation setup. Premium analysis and positioning guidance.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 6, 20267 MIN READ

People walk on steps of a classical building with large columns, industrial refinery with tall towers and tanks in the hazy background

Macro

Fed Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Outlook to 3.6% as War Premium Lingers

The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%, effectively ruling out rate cuts this year. Gold surged 2% as the Iran War geopolitical risk premium returns to precious metals.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 6, 20263 MIN READ

Illustration showing a factory, a large drop of oil hanging over a single gold hard hat, and several gray hard hats in shadow.

workspace_premiumPremium

Macro

Macro Week in Review: June 30: July 3, 2026

June payrolls collapsed to 57,000 as the Iran energy shock hit labor demand. Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%. Gold rallies 2%, bonds flat. Full macro week in review.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 4, 20269 MIN READ

All research