Iran Strikes and Energy Shock Put Fed's Rate Path on Trial
The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran is over, and the Federal Reserve is now facing the hardest version of its dual-mandate problem since 2022. U.S. military strikes on more than 90 Iranian targets on July 8, including critical energy infrastructure at Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Jask, have reignited a supply shock that is feeding directly into inflation already running at 4.2% year over year. The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh was already holding rates at 3.50%: 3.75% with nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. This week's escalation has materially increased the probability that they pull that trigger. Key Takeaways U.S. strikes on 90+ Iranian targets on…
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