Jobless claims near a low at 194,000 as the Fed weighs a +29,000 payroll month on October 28

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended October 17, the lowest reading since the July 18 week and below the 200,000 the Action Economics/Haver Analytics survey expected, according to Haver Analytics. September payrolls, published days earlier, added just 29,000 jobs.

One week of claims says almost nothing broke in the labor market. The monthly payroll report says hiring has all but stopped. The Federal Reserve meets October 27-28 to decide which of those two numbers it believes, and the market is pricing a near-certain hold on Wednesday with an unusually live argument about what comes in December.

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