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The Fed's third consecutive hold at 3.63% looks increasingly justified as CPI...

Published August 28, 20265 min read

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (USD) on a dark background — Federal funds rate has held steady at 3.63% for three consecutive months as the Fed's patient approach is validated by contained inflation and resilient labor markets. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Federal Reserve patience is paying dividends. For the third consecutive month, the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, a 0.00% change that signals confidence in the disinflationary path. This steady hand looks increasingly justified by the incoming data. July CPI (CPIAUCSL) rose a mere 0.07% month-over-month, while core PCE advanced only 0.16%, both readings well within the central bank's comfort zone. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, demonstrating labor market resilience despite two years of tightening. This combination validates the Fed's approach, even as quantitative tightening continues to drain liquidity from the system.

Underlying inflation data tel…

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