What to Watch: FOMC Rate Decision, July 2026
The Federal Reserve wraps its two-day July meeting on Wednesday. CME FedWatch as of July 24 prices the hold at 3.50%-3.75% at roughly 62%, with a 38% chance of a hike of 25 basis points or more. What those probabilities do not capture is what happens in the 30 minutes after Chair Kevin Warsh steps to the podium at 14:30 ET. That is the real event. Key Takeaways CME FedWatch as of July 24 prices the hold at ~62% and a hike at ~38%, well short of the certainty markets usually want before a decision. May PCE came in at 4.1% year-over-year, 210 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, keeping near-term hike risk alive. The 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.33% and the 10-year at 4.69% as of Friday…
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