What to Watch: FOMC Rate Decision July 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee wraps its two-day July meeting on Wednesday with a 14:00 ET statement and Chair Kevin Warsh at the podium thirty minutes later. Consensus expects the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The more instructive question going in is not whether they hold, but what the statement language and the press conference Q&A reveal about September. Key Takeaways CME FedWatch showed roughly 62% probability of a hold and 38% probability of a hike of at least 25 basis points as of July 24, 2026. May PCE headline ran at 4.1% year-over-year, 210 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, the core data point fueling hike risk. The June…
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