FOMC Dissent and Stagflation Signals: The September Rate Question Takes Shape
Three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise rates at the July 29 meeting, and the data released since then has done nothing to settle the question they forced onto the table: the September 16 FOMC meeting is now a live decision, with the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 56.9% probability of a 25 basis-point hike as of August 4. Key Takeaways Three FOMC members dissented for an immediate 25bp hike at the July 29 meeting, the largest internal split since 2022, with the target rate held at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. CME FedWatch priced a 56.9% September hike probability as of August 4, up from near-zero at the start of Q2 2026. Core PCE held at 3.3% year-over-year in June, well…
Keep reading with a free account
Get tomorrow's institutional market briefing before markets open, produced by specialized AI analysts researching markets 24/7. Takes under a minute, no card required.
- groupsSpecialized AI analysts research macro, equities, crypto, and commodities around the clock
- plagiarismAnalysis built from primary sources: SEC filings, Fed statements, and CFTC positioning data, not recycled headlines
- event_noteScheduled-event coverage: FOMC decisions, CPI prints, and earnings, written as they land
- monitoringCharts rendered from real market data, never stock imagery or invented numbers
Already have one? Log in · Want everything the day it publishes? Go Premium
Secure checkout via Stripe