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Fed October Hike: Hot Core CPI Re-arms the Oct 27-28 FOMC

Sarah Chen
Sarah ChenSenior Macro Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 16, 202610 min read
A gasoline pump nozzle sits in the foreground, with apartment buildings softly visible across the street.
Energy’s jump and persistent shelter costs frame the Fed’s October rate debate. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

One print re-armed the October hike debate. September core CPI ran hot at +0.3% month over month and +2.6% year over year against a +0.2% and +2.5% consensus, and for a few hours on Wednesday the market priced a Federal Reserve move at its next meeting as close to a coin flip. The implied odds have cooled since, but the question the Fed faces on Oct 27-28 is no longer academic: it is whether a hot core reading, an energy spike and a labor market that has not cracked argue for a hike this month or for patience.

Key Takeaways September core CPI came in at +0.3% month over month and +2.6% year over year, above the +0.2% and +2.5% consensus. October-hike odds implied by fed funds futures jumped t…

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Fed October Hike: Hot Core CPI Re-arms the Oct 27-28 FOMC | MarketIntelLabs